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Tilt Rips Packs: Price, Odds and Measured Return
Cash rip packs · PSA/CGC, published risk modes, claims ~100% EV
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Cash rip packs · PSA/CGC, published risk modes, claims ~100% EV
53.7% of sampled pulls came back worth at least what the card cost. The middle 80% landed between 50.0% and 210.0% — the average sits above the typical rip because the top band carries it, which is what a chase pack is built to do.
| Tier | Value | Advertised | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Worth less than the cheapest tier | under $125 | not advertised | 8.4%n=24 |
| $125–250 | $125–$250 | 47.4% | 46.0% n=131 |
| $250–750 | $250–$750 | 51.4% | 42.5% n=121 |
| $750–2,500 | $750–$2,500 | 1.0% | 3.2% n=9 |
| $2,500–4,000 | $2,500–$4,000 | 0.2% | 0.0% n=0 |
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| Card⇅ | Value⇅ | Multiple⇅ |
|---|---|---|
 2022 Panini Contenders Optic #139 Jaden Ivey Variation-Autograph-Blue | $300 | 1.20x |
 2018 Panini Prizm Rookie Autographs #BM Baker Mayfield Green Crystals | $385 | 1.54x |
 2022 Panini Contenders Veteran Ticket Autographs #VTPBC Paul Pierce Premium Edition-Gold | $425 | 1.70x |
 2019 Panini Donruss Optic #152 Kyler Murray Autograph | $525 | 2.10x |
 2019 Panini Donruss Optic #151 Talen Horton-Tucker Autograph-Purple | $375 | 1.50x |
 2021 Panini Select Rookie Signatures #RSJSG Jalen Suggs Neon Purple Pulsar | $375 | 1.50x |
 2024 Bowman Sterling Rookies Autographs #RAED Elly De La Cruz | $377 | 1.51x |
 2025 Panini Donruss the Rookies #19 Cam Skattebo Autograph | $300 | 1.20x |
| 2025 Panini Donruss the Rookies #19 Cam Skattebo Autograph | $300 | 1.20x |
 2025 Topps Chrome Autograph Issue Rookies #TAIR-KK Kon Knueppel Purple Refractor | $1,000 | 4.00x |
 1998 Fleer 23kt Gold Michael Jordan Holographic Foil Autograph | $400 | 1.60x |
| 2019 Panini Donruss Optic #151 Talen Horton-Tucker Autograph-Purple | $375 | 1.50x |
| 2018 Panini Prizm Rookie Autographs #BM Baker Mayfield Green Crystals | $385 | 1.54x |
 2022 Panini Contenders Optic #146 Brock Purdy Autograph-Silver | $700 | 2.80x |
 2024 Panini Obsidian #106 Justin Herbert Signature-International Jade | $560 | 2.24x |
 2025 Bowman University Chrome Bowman Chrome Prospect Autographs #FME Fernando Mendoza | $525 | 2.10x |
 2007 Playoff Contenders #123 Calvin Johnson Autograph | $550 | 2.20x |
 2019 Panini Contenders #101 Kyler Murray Autograph | $600 | 2.40x |
 2024 Topps Finest Finest Autographs #FAJM Jackson Merrill Blue Refractor | $302 | 1.21x |
| 2019 Panini Donruss Optic #151 Talen Horton-Tucker Autograph-Purple | $375 | 1.50x |
 2023 Panini Prizm #357 Puka Nacua Autograph | $499 | 2.00x |
 2025 Panini Prizm #301 Travis Hunter Autograph-Red Wave | $395 | 1.58x |
 2024 Bowman Sterling Prospect Autographs #PAJW Jacob Wilson Rose Gold Refractor | $299 | 1.20x |
 2017 Panini Revolution Autographs #A-GA Giannis Antetokounmpo Cubic | $460 | 1.84x |
 2025 Topps Tribute Tribute to Threads Autograph Relics #TTTABWJ Bobby Witt Jr. Red | $610 | 2.44x |
 2025 Topps Holiday #H161 Cooper Flagg Autograph | $800 | 3.20x |
 2019 Topps Chrome Sapphire Edition Rookie Autographs #PA Pete Alonso | $299 | 1.20x |
| 2025 Topps Holiday #H161 Cooper Flagg Autograph | $800 | 3.20x |
 2022 Panini Contenders Optic #103 Christian Braun Variation-Autograph-Orange | $346 | 1.38x |
 2025 Panini Prizm Black #112 Bo Jackson Autograph | $400 | 1.60x |
 2021 Panini Chronicles Legacy Update Rookies #215 Trevor Lawrence Signature | $300 | 1.20x |
 2020 Topps Chrome 1985 Topps #85TCABB Bo Bichette Autograph | $299 | 1.20x |
| 2019 Topps Chrome Sapphire Edition Rookie Autographs #PA Pete Alonso | $299 | 1.20x |
 2022 Topps Chrome Update Autographs #ACJRO Julio Rodriguez | $625 | 2.50x |
 2025 Panini Prizm Retro 2012 Signatures #RSI-AJY Ashton Jeanty Blue Ice | $390 | 1.56x |
 2016 Panini Select Die-Cut Rookie Autograph #29 Jaylen Brown Pulsar | $495 | 1.98x |
| 2019 Panini Donruss Optic #151 Talen Horton-Tucker Autograph-Purple | $375 | 1.50x |
 2022 Panini Prizm Rookie Patch Autographs #RPADL Drake London Gold Prizm | $450 | 1.80x |
 2024 Panini Select in Flight Signatures #IFSMCG Tracy Mcgrady Neon Orange Pulsar Fotl | $475 | 1.90x |
 2023 Panini Select Signatures #SSMUR Keegan Murray Gold Prizm | $300 | 1.20x |
| 2025 Panini Donruss the Rookies #19 Cam Skattebo Autograph | $300 | 1.20x |
| 2022 Panini Contenders Optic #103 Christian Braun Variation-Autograph-Orange | $346 | 1.38x |
| 2016 Panini Select Die-Cut Rookie Autograph #29 Jaylen Brown Pulsar | $495 | 1.98x |
 2022 Panini Donruss Optic #209 Bennedict Mathurin Signature-Pink | $300 | 1.20x |
 2018 Panini Select Signatures #LBD Larry Bird Tie-Dye Prizm | $301 | 1.20x |
| 2019 Topps Chrome Sapphire Edition Rookie Autographs #PA Pete Alonso | $299 | 1.20x |
 2020 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Picks Autographs #CDAST Spencer Torkelson Refractor | $170 | 0.68x |
 2024 Topps Chrome Chrome All-Pro Autographs #APALT Lawrence Taylor Red Geometric | $125 | 0.50x |
 1999 Playoff Contenders #118 Jeff Garcia Autographed | $250 | 1.00x |
 2023 Panini Prizm Draft Picks Sensational Signature #SSMBZ Matas Buzelis Blue Prizm | $250 | 1.00x |
Showing 50 of 285 sampled — sorted across all of them.