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Tilt Rips Packs: Price, Odds and Measured Return
Cash rip packs · PSA/CGC, published risk modes, claims ~100% EV
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Cash rip packs · PSA/CGC, published risk modes, claims ~100% EV
52.5% of sampled pulls came back worth at least what the card cost. The middle 80% landed between 54.0% and 235.2% — the average sits above the typical rip because the top band carries it, which is what a chase pack is built to do.
| Tier | Value | Advertised | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Worth less than the cheapest tier | under $125 | not advertised | 3.3%n=6 |
| $125–250 | $125–$250 | 50.3% | 49.5% n=90 |
| $250–750 | $250–$750 | 48.4% | 39.6% n=72 |
| $750–2,500 | $750–$2,500 | 1.1% | 6.0% n=11 |
| $2,500–4,000 | $2,500–$4,000 | 0.1% | 1.6% n=3 |
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| Card⇅ | Value⇅ | Multiple⇅ |
|---|---|---|
 2026 Topps Now #FMEN Fernando Mendoza | $375 | 1.50x |
 2025 Panini Select #88 Jayden Daniels Zebra Shock | $430 | 1.72x |
 2023 Panini Prizm #357 Puka Nacua Autograph | $499 | 2.00x |
 2024 Topps Chrome Black Autographs #RA Ronald Acuna Jr. Gold Refractor | $299 | 1.20x |
| 2025 Panini Select #88 Jayden Daniels Zebra Shock | $430 | 1.72x |
 2022 Panini Prizm World Cup Qatar Manga #4 Gabriel Martinelli | $387 | 1.55x |
 2020 Panini Donruss Optic #151 Joe Burrow Holo | $380 | 1.52x |
 2025 Topps Chrome Tall Tales #TT-4 Victor Wembanyama Refractor | $400 | 1.60x |
 2022 Panini Contenders Optic #103 Christian Braun Variation-Autograph-Orange | $346 | 1.38x |
 2024 Panini Donruss Optic Downtown Legends #2 Kurt Warner | $600 | 2.40x |
 2014 Panini Spectra Cornerstones Prizm #15 Tom Brady Gold | $2,400 | 9.60x |
 2023 Panini Prizm #136 Victor Wembanyama | $415 | 1.66x |
 2024 Panini Donruss Downtown! #6 Sam Laporta | $450 | 1.80x |
 2022 Panini Mosaic Razzle Dazzle #5 LeBron James | $300 | 1.20x |
 2025 Topps Chrome #251 Cooper Flagg | $304 | 1.22x |
 2025 Panini Donruss the Rookies #19 Cam Skattebo Autograph | $300 | 1.20x |
 2024 Panini Donruss Optic Uptowns #8 Brock Bowers | $420 | 1.68x |
 2022 Panini Obsidian #200 Jaden Ivey Electric Etch Lucky Envelopes | $375 | 1.50x |
 2018 Panini Chronicles #571 Luka Doncic | $300 | 1.20x |
 2018 Topps Gypsy Queen #89 Shohei Ohtani | $448 | 1.79x |
 1986 Leaf #37 Rickey Henderson | $200 | 0.80x |
 2024 Topps Chrome Finesse #F1 Caleb Williams Gold Refractor | $340 | 1.36x |
 2025 Topps Chrome Instinct #INS-12 Dylan Harper Purple Refractor | $800 | 3.20x |
 2023 Panini Prizm #152 Brandon Miller Silver Prizm | $255 | 1.02x |
 2024 Topps Update #US288 Paul Skenes Purple Holo Foilboard | $195 | 0.78x |
 2022 Topps Pristine #193 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Red Refractor | $100 | 0.40x |
 2022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Autographs #CPAJME Jackson Merrill | $155 | 0.62x |
 2024 Panini Donruss Optic #229 Drake Maye Blue Glitter | $600 | 2.40x |
 2025 Topps Chrome Sleek Finishers #SF-24 Kon Knueppel Red Refractor | $2,300 | 9.20x |
 2025 Topps Chrome #221 Victor Wembanyama X-Fractor | $300 | 1.20x |
 2023 Panini Select #215 Shaedon Sharpe Elephant Prizm | $250 | 1.00x |
 2015 Topps Chrome #117 Brandon Scherff Pink Refractor | $125 | 0.50x |
 2023 Panini Spectra #146 Jayden Reed Interstellar | $135 | 0.54x |
 2022 Panini Prizm #310 Chris Olave Hyper Prizm | $150 | 0.60x |
 2024 Panini Donruss Optic #221 Cooper Dejean Fire | $160 | 0.64x |
 2022 Panini Prizm Monopoly #78 Keegan Murray Boardwalk Blue | $250 | 1.00x |
 2023 Panini Prizm Instant Impact #II1 Bryce Young | $249 | 1.00x |
 2025 Topps Chrome Update Celebracion #3 Mookie Betts Green Refractor | $137 | 0.55x |
 2015 Panini Prizm #298 Tyler Lockett Blue Prizm | $165 | 0.66x |
 2023 Panini Prizm #126 Tristan Vukcevic Blue Ice | $350 | 1.40x |
 2023 Topps Composite Topps Chrome Helix #HX12 Tom Brady | $450 | 1.80x |
 2023 Panini Prizm #127 Keyonte George Silver Prizm | $210 | 0.84x |
 2024 Bowman Sapphire Edition Chrome Prospects Sapphire Autographs #BM Brice Matthews | $140 | 0.56x |
 2024 Topps Chrome Update 2024 All-Star Game Autographs #SI Shota Imanaga X-Fractor | $135 | 0.54x |
 2022 Panini Clearly Donruss Nu-Clear #N13 Drake London | $160 | 0.64x |
 2022 Panini Mosaic #184 Mike Evans Genesis | $180 | 0.72x |
 2022 Panini Select #501 Bryce Young | $200 | 0.80x |
 2024 Bowman Bowman Spotlights #BS6 Elly De La Cruz Aqua Refractor | $260 | 1.04x |
 2022 Panini Select #282 Jalen Williams White Disco | $245 | 0.98x |
 2019 Topps Chrome Update #21 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Purple Refractor | $155 | 0.62x |
Showing 50 of 182 sampled — sorted across all of them.