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What really comes out of this pack
1,381 real pulls sampledTypical rip
90.0%
median — half came back above
Average
103.5%
pulled up by the big hits
Biggest hit
544.0%
Donovan Mitchell
Where the 1,381 pulls landedcard value vs. the $50.00 it cost
under 25%— · 0
25–50%— · 0
50–90%49.6% · 685
90–110%21.9% · 303
110–200%25.1% · 346
200–500%3.2% · 44
over 500%0.2% · 3
34.8% of sampled pulls came back worth at least what the card cost. The middle 80% landed between 75.4% and 137.8% — the average sits above the typical rip because the top band carries it, which is what a chase pack is built to do.
Advertised vs. observedsolid
The odds check out
Over 1,381 real pulls, the observed mean value is $51.76 versus the advertised EV of $52.39 — a -1.2% difference.
observed · advertised
$51.76 · $52.39
Cost
$50.00
Advertised EV
$52.39
per card, at midpoints
Advertised RTP
104.8%
gross
Net RTP
88.6%
after buyback
Advertised odds vs. real pulls
odds · API· 2026-08-03| Tier | Value | Advertised | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|
| base · $35–45 | $35.00–$45.00 | 58.9% | 49.6% n=685 |
| common · $45–50 | $45.00–$50.00 | 17.0% | 15.6% n=215 |
| uncommon · $50–100 | $50.00–$100 | 21.0% | 31.4% n=434 |
| rare · $100–200 | $100–$200 | 3.0% | 3.2% n=44 |
| chase · $200–800 | $200–$800 | 0.1% | 0.2% n=3 |
Recent pulls from this pack (1,381 sampled)
| Card | Category | Value |
|---|---|---|
| AJ Dybantsa/10646* · BGS 9.5 GEM MINT | Basketball | $36.00 |
| Cooper Flagg · PSA 10 GEM MINT | Basketball | $63.10 |
| Paolo Banchero · PSA 10 GEM MINT | Basketball | $61.00 |
| Derrick Rose · PSA 10 GEM MINT | Basketball | $252 |
| Kon Knueppel/1444* · BGS 10 PRISTINE | Basketball | $65.00 |
| AJ Dybantsa · BGS 9.5 GEM MINT | Basketball | $38.30 |
| AJ Dybantsa · PSA 10 GEM MINT | Basketball | $67.00 |
| Cooper Flagg · PSA 10 GEM MINT | Basketball | $55.60 |
| Caitlin Clark · PSA 9 MINT | Basketball | $67.60 |
| Victor Wembanyama · PSA 9 MINT | Basketball | $35.80 |
| Cooper Flagg · PSA 10 GEM MINT | Basketball | $64.60 |
| Cooper Flagg · BGS 10 PRISTINE | Basketball | $66.20 |
4.6/ 5
Courtyard
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Courtyard highlights
- Cash payouts — cash out or ship the card
- ~85% instant buyback
- Publishes real pullable-card odds
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