Grailed.gg
Gem rip packs · Pokemon only, per-card odds and values published in full
How we rate Grailed.gg
Everything we measure, how we measure it, and what we can't see.
Settlement reality
How value is computed
Grailed.gg publishes odds directly as value bands (a probability for each dollar-value range), summing to 100%. Return = Σ (band chance × band midpoint) ÷ price — computed straight from the published distribution, at Grailed's own per-card values, published inline with the pool.
This return is gross: it's the value of the card you win, before the cash-out (sell-back) haircut, which Grailed.gg does not publish. The real, realizable figure is therefore lower.
Where a live pull feed exposes values, sampled reveals give an independent value check — preferred over the modelled figure once the sample is large enough.