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Pullmarket Live Pulls: What Is Coming Out Right Now
Graded card rip packs · One Piece, Pokémon, sports
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Graded card rip packs · One Piece, Pokémon, sports
| Rarity | Value | Advertised | Real (API) | Observed | Distribution | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare | $5,000–$10,000 | 0.01% | 0.01% | — | need more data | |
| Prime | $2,500–$5,000 | 0.01% | 0.01% | — | need more data | |
| Epic | $1,000–$2,500 | 0.04% | 0.04% | 0.03% n=11 | ✓ on the odds | |
| Elite | $500–$1,000 | 0.04% | 0.04% | 0.05% n=21 | ✓ on the odds | |
| Rare | $250–$500 | 2.21% | 2.21% | 2.12% n=913 | ✓ on the odds | |
| Deluxe | $150–$250 | 10.62% | 10.62% | 10.55% n=4536 | ✓ on the odds | |
| Premium | $75.00–$150 | 18.64% | 18.64% | 18.98% n=8160 | ✓ on the odds | |
| Uncommon | $25.00–$74.99 | 25.54% | 25.54% | 25.40% n=10924 | ✓ on the odds | |
| Common | $10.00–$24.99 | 34.08% | 34.08% | 33.69% n=14488 | ✓ on the odds | |
| Base | $5.00–$9.99 | 8.81% | 8.81% | 9.14% n=3932 | ✓ on the odds |
Advertised is the chance Pullmarket shows on the pack page; Real is what its own odds API returns; Observed is what 43,001sampled pulls actually delivered. The jackpot tiers are sub-0.1% events — a handful of pulls can't confirm them, so they read “need more data” until the sample grows into the tens of thousands.
Cost = pack price ÷ cards per pack; P/L is per card. These are the rarest hits — most pulls lose money (see the live feed). “Unknown” where the feed doesn't name the pack.
Real card reveals sampled from the live feed (cheap cards included). This is the only cap-proof value signal — the operator's own math can't bias it. Means are provisional until each category's sample grows.
| Category | Pulls | Mean value | Min | Max | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseball | 11,533 | $71.84 | $3.67 | $9,983 | solid |
| Pokemon | 10,727 | $71.56 | $3.08 | $4,742 | solid |
| Football | 8,123 | $70.06 | $3.15 | $5,193 | solid |
| Basketball | 5,839 | $70.36 | $3.05 | $3,400 | solid |
| Soccer | 5,763 | $73.34 | $3.35 | $4,442 | solid |
| One Piece | 1,176 | $68.48 | $4.98 | $493 | solid |
| Disney | 163 | $56.94 | $4.65 | $417 | solid |
| Card | Category | Tier | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kobe Bryant #203 | Basketball | Uncommon | $44.58 |
| Aaron Judge #62 | Baseball | Common | $17.93 |
| Victor Wembanyama #282 | Basketball | Common | $12.10 |
| Shohei Ohtani #132 | Baseball | Deluxe | $167 |
| Cooper Flagg #PP-16 | Basketball | Common | $11.65 |
| Jackson Holliday [Holiday Lights] #H188 | Baseball | Common | $13.33 |
| Dominique Wilkins #121 | Basketball | Uncommon | $74.17 |
| Pikachu #190 | Pokemon | Uncommon | $66.67 |
| New York Mets #426 | Baseball | Base | $8.33 |
| Caleb Williams #13 | Football | Uncommon | $33.32 |
| Cooper Flagg #SY-11 | Basketball | Premium | $83.33 |
| Shohei Ohtani #CAE-1 | Baseball | Premium | $148 |
| Michael Jordan #5 | Basketball | Common | $20.48 |
| Lionel Messi #10 | Soccer | Uncommon | $73.33 |
| Mark Anthony Kaye [Purple] #7 | Soccer | Base | $9.17 |
| Shohei Ohtani [Sepia] #1 | Baseball | Deluxe | $233 |
| Caleb Williams [Orange Lazer] #301 | Football | Deluxe | $241 |
| Lionel Messi #FB-10 | Soccer | Common | $24.98 |
| Caleb Williams #201 | Football | Base | $6.67 |
| Paul Skenes #USC27 | Baseball | Common | $15.42 |
| Shohei Ohtani #H200 | Baseball | Uncommon | $63.33 |
| Shohei Ohtani / Ichiro #US153 | Baseball | Premium | $137 |
| Michael Jordan #26 | Basketball | Uncommon | $28.32 |
| Charizard GX #SM211 | Pokemon | Deluxe | $167 |
| Caleb Williams #151 | Football | Premium | $79.17 |
| Gyarados ex #225 | Pokemon | Common | $18.82 |
| Paul Skenes #USC88 | Baseball | Premium | $83.33 |
| Tom Brady [Refractor] #120 | Football | Premium | $90.27 |
| Caleb Williams #1 | Football | Premium | $125 |
| New York Yankees #MOW26 | Baseball | Base | $9.98 |
| LeBron James [Refractor] #127 | Basketball | Premium | $94.65 |
| New York Knicks Team Leaders #93 | Basketball | Base | $5.30 |
| Paul Skenes [X-fractor] #USC88 | Baseball | Premium | $141 |
| Shohei Ohtani #SMLB-77 | Baseball | Premium | $80.10 |
| Pikachu #SWSH020 | Pokemon | Premium | $100 |
| Goofy - Super Goof [Enchanted] #214 | Disney | Premium | $119 |
| Aaron Judge #287 | Baseball | Uncommon | $101 |
| Mike Trout #H50 | Baseball | Common | $23.33 |
| Juan Gonzalez [Parallel 250] #32 | Baseball | Base | $8.85 |
| VJ Edgecombe [X-Fractor] #253 | Basketball | Premium | $140 |
| Elly De La Cruz #SITP-4 | Baseball | Uncommon | $73.43 |
| Pikachu [2026 Pokemon Day] #51 | Pokemon | Deluxe | $160 |
| Kylian Mbappe [Green Mosaic] #112 | Soccer | Common | $16.33 |
| Ariel - Sonic Warrior #175 | Disney | Common | $23.33 |
| Lance's Charizard V #SWSH133 | Pokemon | Common | $13.27 |
| Pikachu #1/SV-P | Pokemon | Uncommon | $48.00 |
| Sylveon VMAX #75 | Pokemon | Base | $8.98 |
| Paul Skenes #BAI-15 | Baseball | Common | $14.57 |
| Ken Griffey Jr. #232 | Baseball | Base | $9.12 |
| Cristiano Ronaldo [Red] #13 | Soccer | Uncommon | $60.00 |