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Advertised vs. real vs. observed, by rarity
7,498 real pulls · pack-mix weighted| Rarity | Value | Advertised | Real (API) | Observed | Distribution | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare | $5,000–$10,000 | 0.01% | 0.01% | — | need more data | |
| Prime | $2,500–$5,000 | 0.02% | 0.02% | — | need more data | |
| Epic | $1,000–$2,500 | 0.03% | 0.03% | — | need more data | |
| Elite | $500–$1,000 | 0.05% | 0.05% | — | need more data | |
| Rare | $250–$500 | 2.08% | 2.08% | 2.13% n=160 | ✓ on the odds | |
| Deluxe | $150–$250 | 10.76% | 10.76% | 10.44% n=783 | ✓ on the odds | |
| Premium | $75.00–$150 | 18.81% | 18.81% | 18.99% n=1424 | ✓ on the odds | |
| Uncommon | $25.00–$74.99 | 25.91% | 25.91% | 25.93% n=1944 | ✓ on the odds | |
| Common | $10.00–$24.99 | 33.49% | 33.49% | 33.09% n=2481 | ✓ on the odds | |
| Base | $5.00–$9.99 | 8.83% | 8.83% | 9.35% n=701 | ✓ on the odds |
Advertised is the chance Pullmarket shows on the pack page; Real is what its own odds API returns; Observed is what 7,498sampled pulls actually delivered. The jackpot tiers are sub-0.1% events — a handful of pulls can't confirm them, so they read “need more data” until the sample grows into the tens of thousands.
Top pulls · all timebiggest cards we've sampled
- 1Lionel Messi #8Soccer Legendary - 5 Cards · Soccer$3,238cost $200 · +$3,038
- 2Aaron Judge [Catching] #287Baseball Champion - 3 Cards · Baseball$728cost $100 · +$628
- 3Aaron Judge #25Baseball Champion - 5 Cards · Baseball$509cost $100 · +$409
- 4Ash's Pikachu #SM108Monster Elite (Pokemon) - 1 Card · Pokemon$503cost $99.99 · +$403
- 5Lionel Messi #ARG20Soccer Prospect - 5 Cards · Soccer$500cost $35.40 · +$465
- 6Aaron Judge #32Baseball Legendary - 5 Cards · Baseball$500cost $200 · +$300
- 7Aaron Judge #32Baseball Legendary - 3 Cards · Baseball$500cost $200 · +$300
- 8Aaron Judge #32Baseball Legendary - 5 Cards · Baseball$500cost $200 · +$300
Cost = pack price ÷ cards per pack; P/L is per card. These are the rarest hits — most pulls lose money (see the live feed). “Unknown” where the feed doesn't name the pack.
Live pulls — measured ground truth
Real card reveals sampled from the live feed (cheap cards included). This is the only cap-proof value signal — the operator's own math can't bias it. Means are provisional until each category's sample grows.
Empirical mean value by category
| Category | Pulls | Mean value | Min | Max | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseball | 2,055 | $71.29 | $4.15 | $728 | solid |
| Pokemon | 1,847 | $68.81 | $4.60 | $503 | solid |
| Football | 1,435 | $67.56 | $5.00 | $468 | solid |
| Basketball | 1,015 | $66.19 | $3.05 | $498 | solid |
| Soccer | 993 | $76.00 | $5.00 | $3,238 | solid |
| One Piece | 185 | $72.86 | $5.25 | $414 | solid |
| Disney | 23 | $47.44 | $5.43 | $293 | provisional |
Recent reveals
| Card | Category | Tier | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani #US285 | Baseball | Deluxe | $231 |
| Jackson Holliday #88 | Baseball | Common | $12.24 |
| Aaron Judge #150 | Baseball | Premium | $185 |
| Cooper Flagg [Holo Foil] #PP-16 | Basketball | Uncommon | $58.33 |
| Lionel Messi #23 | Soccer | Common | $16.67 |
| Psychic Energy [Holo] #207 | Pokemon | Common | $10.57 |
| Mickey Mouse - Detective [Foil] #154 | Disney | Uncommon | $71.67 |
| Maleficent - Biding Her Time #48 | Disney | Common | $23.33 |
| Michael Jordan #100 | Basketball | Uncommon | $42.50 |
| Aaron Judge #SMLB-1 | Baseball | Uncommon | $34.57 |
| Jackson Holliday [Mojo Refractor] #26 | Baseball | Common | $17.08 |
| Jude Bellingham [Pink Wave] #43 | Soccer | Base | $8.33 |
| Tom Brady #403 | Football | Premium | $138 |
| New Orleans Saints #242 | Football | Common | $12.93 |
| Anthony Edwards #258 | Basketball | Common | $21.30 |
| Shohei Ohtani #MYS-9 | Baseball | Rare | $160 |
| Charizard ex #125 | Pokemon | Deluxe | $158 |
| Pikachu Birthday #24 | Pokemon | Uncommon | $54.53 |
| Jude Bellingham [Pink] #90 | Soccer | Common | $16.07 |
| Reshiram & Charizard GX #20 | Pokemon | Deluxe | $203 |
| Shohei Ohtani #CAE-1 | Baseball | Uncommon | $16.42 |
| Pikachu ex #57 | Pokemon | Premium | $138 |
| Cooper Flagg #BD-21 | Basketball | Deluxe | $167 |
| Mega Charizard X ex #13 | Pokemon | Uncommon | $51.67 |
| Paul Skenes #SMLB-27 | Baseball | Common | $13.04 |
| Lionel Messi #10 | Soccer | Premium | $102 |
| Sylveon #155 | Pokemon | Base | $8.33 |
| Roronoa Zoro [Winner] EB02-019 | One Piece | Rare | $385 |
| Cooper Flagg [Holo] #8B-31 | Basketball | Uncommon | $43.30 |
| Birthday Pikachu #24 | Pokemon | Rare | $433 |
| Atlanta Hawks #274 | Basketball | Common | $14.17 |
| Flying Pikachu VMAX #7 | Pokemon | Uncommon | $57.07 |
| Aaron Judge #ATT-6 | Baseball | Premium | $50.00 |
| Mewtwo [Cracked Ice Holo] #51 | Pokemon | Common | $18.28 |
| Victor Wembanyama #151 | Basketball | Premium | $104 |
| Erling Haaland [Green] #160 | Soccer | Common | $20.00 |
| Kylian Mbappe [Red] #101 | Soccer | Deluxe | $243 |
| Lionel Messi #SD-10 | Soccer | Uncommon | $39.15 |
| Caleb Williams #50 | Football | Premium | $125 |
| Aaron Judge #TOG-3 | Baseball | Uncommon | $22.00 |
| Luka Doncic #177 | Basketball | Uncommon | $49.80 |
| Kylian Mbappe #US-25 | Soccer | Uncommon | $46.67 |
| Paul Skenes #ASG-29 | Baseball | Premium | $150 |
| Victor Wembanyama [Blue] #87 | Basketball | Common | $17.05 |
| Lionel Messi [Silver] #80 | Soccer | Uncommon | $71.67 |
| Shohei Ohtani #200 | Baseball | Premium | $46.00 |
| Caleb Williams #F-1 | Football | Uncommon | $49.98 |
| Lionel Messi [Blue Pulsar] #1 | Soccer | Deluxe | $216 |
| Alcremie VMAX #73 | Pokemon | Base | $7.85 |
| Darkrai [Holo] #136 | Pokemon | Deluxe | $242 |