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Pullmarket Live Pulls: What Is Coming Out Right Now
Graded card rip packs · One Piece, Pokémon, sports
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Graded card rip packs · One Piece, Pokémon, sports
| Rarity | Value | Advertised | Real (API) | Observed | Distribution | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare | $5,000–$10,000 | 0.00% | 0.00% | — | need more data | |
| Prime | $2,500–$5,000 | 0.02% | 0.02% | — | need more data | |
| Epic | $1,000–$2,500 | 0.04% | 0.04% | — | need more data | |
| Elite | $500–$1,000 | 0.04% | 0.04% | 0.04% n=10 | ✓ on the odds | |
| Rare | $250–$500 | 2.14% | 2.14% | 2.13% n=578 | ✓ on the odds | |
| Deluxe | $150–$250 | 10.58% | 10.58% | 10.49% n=2845 | ✓ on the odds | |
| Premium | $75.00–$150 | 18.69% | 18.69% | 19.16% n=5197 | ✓ on the odds | |
| Uncommon | $25.00–$74.99 | 25.41% | 25.41% | 25.53% n=6926 | ✓ on the odds | |
| Common | $10.00–$24.99 | 34.30% | 34.30% | 33.25% n=9020 | ✓ on the odds | |
| Base | $5.00–$9.99 | 8.78% | 8.78% | 9.34% n=2534 | ✓ on the odds |
Advertised is the chance Pullmarket shows on the pack page; Real is what its own odds API returns; Observed is what 27,129sampled pulls actually delivered. The jackpot tiers are sub-0.1% events — a handful of pulls can't confirm them, so they read “need more data” until the sample grows into the tens of thousands.
Cost = pack price ÷ cards per pack; P/L is per card. These are the rarest hits — most pulls lose money (see the live feed). “Unknown” where the feed doesn't name the pack.
Real card reveals sampled from the live feed (cheap cards included). This is the only cap-proof value signal — the operator's own math can't bias it. Means are provisional until each category's sample grows.
| Category | Pulls | Mean value | Min | Max | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseball | 7,428 | $71.96 | $3.68 | $9,983 | solid |
| Pokemon | 6,743 | $71.24 | $3.12 | $4,742 | solid |
| Football | 5,079 | $70.43 | $3.32 | $5,193 | solid |
| Basketball | 3,687 | $67.60 | $3.05 | $900 | solid |
| Soccer | 3,548 | $75.57 | $4.27 | $4,442 | solid |
| One Piece | 733 | $66.99 | $4.98 | $475 | solid |
| Disney | 105 | $54.23 | $4.65 | $417 | solid |
| Card | Category | Tier | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams [Green] #1 | Football | Premium | $99.98 |
| Green Bay Packers #221 | Football | Common | $16.67 |
| Shohei Ohtani / Yoshinobu Yamamoto / Roki Sasaki #7 | Baseball | Premium | $148 |
| Pikachu [Cracked Ice Holo] #35 | Pokemon | Premium | $133 |
| Kobe Bryant #23 | Basketball | Uncommon | $26.28 |
| Mewtwo [Reverse Holo] #51 | Pokemon | Common | $17.67 |
| Kylian Mbappe #41 | Soccer | Deluxe | $225 |
| Erling Haaland [Optic Holo] #84 | Soccer | Base | $5.42 |
| Venusaur [Holo] #3 | Pokemon | Common | $22.92 |
| Victor Wembanyama #257 | Basketball | Uncommon | $58.33 |
| Mega Charizard X ex #13 | Pokemon | Deluxe | $160 |
| Radiant Charizard #20 | Pokemon | Common | $21.43 |
| Jayden Daniels #93 | Football | Uncommon | $74.02 |
| Caleb Williams #114 | Football | Deluxe | $227 |
| Cristiano Ronaldo #94 | Soccer | Uncommon | $33.33 |
| Erling Haaland #461 | Soccer | Common | $16.67 |
| Erling Haaland [Icy Blue] #1 | Soccer | Common | $17.50 |
| Shohei Ohtani #SMLB-21 | Baseball | Deluxe | $167 |
| Jayden Daniels #29 | Football | Common | $22.10 |
| Paul Skenes #H165 | Baseball | Uncommon | $58.60 |
| Paul Skenes #BD-14 | Baseball | Premium | $92.50 |
| Caleb Williams #1 | Football | Uncommon | $48.33 |
| Cooper Flagg #ML-1 | Basketball | Deluxe | $185 |
| Erling Haaland #89 | Soccer | Uncommon | $61.00 |
| Jackson Holliday #61 | Baseball | Common | $24.17 |
| Juan Soto [Choice Fusion Red & Yellow] #113 | Baseball | Base | $8.33 |
| Caleb Williams #1 | Football | Deluxe | $173 |
| Lionel Messi #10 | Soccer | Uncommon | $30.83 |
| Baltimore Ravens [Black] #101 | Football | Common | $16.65 |
| Patrick Mahomes II #CON-PMS | Football | Uncommon | $65.00 |
| Jude Bellingham [Sparkle] #14 | Soccer | Common | $16.28 |
| Jude Bellingham [Refractor] #54 | Soccer | Common | $18.10 |
| Paul Skenes [X-Fractor] #300 | Baseball | Common | $23.92 |
| Mega Dragonite ex #232 | Pokemon | Common | $24.35 |
| Blastoise Ex [Stamped] #30 | Pokemon | Common | $19.17 |
| Patrick Mahomes II #33 | Football | Deluxe | $222 |
| Pikachu #60 | Pokemon | Premium | $108 |
| Vinicius Junior #177 | Soccer | Common | $18.92 |
| Nami [Parallel Foil] ST21-009 | One Piece | Deluxe | $172 |
| Brock Purdy #277 | Football | Deluxe | $160 |
| Mega Venusaur Ex #76 | Pokemon | Common | $16.67 |
| Cristiano Ronaldo #154 | Soccer | Premium | $110 |
| Mike Trout [Orange Refractor] #SITP-10 | Baseball | Common | $23.33 |
| Charmander [Reverse Holo] #11 | Pokemon | Uncommon | $41.65 |
| Kylian Mbappe [Optic] #100 | Soccer | Uncommon | $57.85 |
| Patrick Mahomes II #10 | Football | Common | $17.40 |
| Caleb Williams [Red Blue Prizm Shock] #114 | Football | Common | $21.65 |
| Roronoa Zoro EB02-019 | One Piece | Premium | $88.13 |
| Flying Pikachu VMAX #7 | Pokemon | Common | $13.33 |
| Pikachu VMAX #44 | Pokemon | Common | $20.83 |