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What really comes out of this pack
122 real pulls sampledTypical rip
69.6%
median — half came back above
Average
100.7%
pulled up by the big hits
Biggest hit
388.9%
Tudor Black Bay 58 Black Dial
Where the 122 pulls landedcard value vs. the $999 it cost
under 25%— · 0
25–50%— · 0
50–90%63.1% · 77
90–110%5.7% · 7
110–200%23.0% · 28
200–500%8.2% · 10
over 500%— · 0
32.0% of sampled pulls came back worth at least what the card cost. The middle 80% landed between 51.7% and 191.9% — the average sits above the typical rip because the top band carries it, which is what a chase pack is built to do.
Advertised vs. observedsolid
Running below advertised (-11%)
Over 122 real pulls, the observed mean value is $1,006 versus the advertised EV of $1,127 — a -10.8% difference.
observed · advertised
$1,006 · $1,127
Cost
$999
Advertised EV
$1,127
per card, at midpoints
Advertised RTP
112.8%
gross
Net RTP
101.1%
after buyback
Advertised odds vs. real pulls
odds · API· 2026-08-07| Tier | Value | Advertised | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|
| base · $500–750 | $500–$750 | 51.2% | 54.1% n=66 |
| common · $750–999 | $750–$999 | 21.0% | 13.9% n=17 |
| uncommon · $999–1,998 | $999–$1,998 | 22.0% | 23.8% n=29 |
| rare · $1,998–3,996 | $1,998–$3,996 | 5.0% | 8.2% n=10 |
| chase · $3,996–31,968 | $3,996–$31,968 | 0.8% | 0.0% n=0 |
Recent pulls from this pack (122 sampled)
| Card | Category | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Zapdos · PSA 10 GEM MINT | Pokémon | $926 |
| Gengar · PSA 7 NM | Pokémon | $694 |
| Jolteon Vmax · PSA 10 GEM MINT | Pokémon | $894 |
| Sam LaPorta · PSA 9 MINT | Football | $1,135 |
| 1898 $5 Gold PCGS MS63 · PCGS MS63 | US | $1,218 |
| Charizard · PSA 10 GEM MINT | Pokémon | $541 |
| 1900 $5 Gold PCGS MS63 · PCGS MS63 | US | $1,133 |
| X-Men · CGC-COMIC 9.6 NM+ | Marvel Comic | $536 |
| Monkey D. Luffy · PSA 10 GEM MINT | One Piece | $632 |
| Pinsir · CGC 10 GEM MINT | Pokémon | $541 |
| 1829 10C S.S. Central America #2 (with Pinch) PCGS FR02 · PCGS FR02 | Shipwreck | $700 |
| Victor Wembanyama · PSA 9 MINT | Basketball | $755 |
4.6/ 5
Courtyard
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Courtyard highlights
- Free vaulting, insured at full market value
- Cash payouts — take the money or ship the card
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